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EPS Growth Calculator — CAGR & Sustainable Rate

Calculate EPS growth as an annual compound rate, project EPS forward, or derive sustainable growth from ROE and payout ratio.

About This Calculator

EPS growth tells you how fast a company's per-share earnings compound, which drives almost every valuation model. This calculator converts two EPS readings into a compound annual growth rate, projects EPS forward at that pace, or estimates sustainable growth from ROE and the payout ratio. Enter split-adjusted EPS figures from the same source and the math handles the rest.

The Formula Behind This Calculator

Historical mode uses the compound annual growth rate formula: EPS growth = (Ending EPS / Starting EPS)^(1 / Years) − 1. With the default inputs, $1.80 growing to $3.20 over 5 years gives (3.20/1.80)^(1/5) − 1 = 12.2% per year. Sustainable mode uses g = ROE × (1 − payout ratio): an 18% ROE with a 35% payout retains 65% of earnings, so g = 18% × 0.65 = 11.7%. The projection step compounds the ending EPS forward: $3.20 × (1.122)^5 = $5.69. The result is expressed as a percentage per year, and the label shows the projected EPS level.

Understanding the math helps you verify results and make better decisions for your project.

How to Use

  1. 1Choose the method: Historical EPS CAGR if you have two actual EPS figures, or Sustainable if you want the growth implied by ROE and payout policy.
  2. 2Enter split-adjusted EPS from the same data source for the start and end dates, and set the number of years between them.
  3. 3For sustainable mode, enter return on equity and the dividend payout ratio; the calculator applies g = ROE x (1 - payout).
  4. 4Set the projection horizon to compound the ending EPS forward and see the expected EPS level in future years.

When to Use

  • Screening stocks for consistent earnings compounding before digging into qualitative factors.
  • Sanity-checking an analyst's or management's growth forecast against what the company actually delivered.
  • Setting the growth input for a dividend discount model or a DCF terminal value.
  • Comparing the earnings trajectory of two companies in the same industry over the same window.

Tips

  • Always use split-adjusted EPS from a single source; mixing pre-split and post-split figures makes a 2-for-1 split look like a 50% earnings collapse.
  • Compare EPS growth against revenue growth. EPS growing far faster than sales usually means margin expansion or share buybacks, and both have limits.
  • Run both methods. If historical growth runs well above sustainable growth, find out what funded the gap: leverage, dilution timing, or a margin cycle.
  • Measure over 5+ year windows. Single-year EPS growth swings wildly on tax rate changes, asset sales, and recession bounces.
  • Strip one-off items before calculating. A pension gain or a litigation reserve distorting one endpoint will contaminate the entire compound rate.
  • When projecting dividends off EPS growth, check that the payout ratio can hold; EPS growing 12% with dividends growing 15% pushes payout past 100% within a decade.

How the EPS Growth Calculator Works

The calculator offers two routes to an EPS growth rate. Historical mode takes two EPS readings plus the years between them and computes the compound annual growth rate: (ending EPS / starting EPS)^(1/years) − 1. With the default inputs of $1.80 growing to $3.20 over 5 years, that works out to 12.2% per year — the smooth constant rate that connects the two endpoints.

The projection step compounds that rate forward. At 12.2% a year, the $3.20 ending EPS reaches $5.69 after 5 more years and $10.11 after 10. This is the assumption-visibility step most people skip: a growth rate is only useful if you can see what EPS level it implies, and how sensitive that level is to a point or two of rate.

Sustainable mode answers a different question: what growth can the business fund itself? It multiplies return on equity by retained earnings. If what you actually need is the current EPS level rather than the rate between two dates, the EPS calculator computes basic and diluted EPS from net income, preferred dividends, and weighted average shares.

EPS CAGR Beats Simple Average Growth

The most common EPS growth mistake is dividing total growth by the number of years. EPS rising from $1.80 to $3.20 is 77.8% total growth, and 77.8 ÷ 5 suggests 15.6% a year. The compound answer is 12.20%. The gap exists because each year's growth builds on a bigger base, so the arithmetic average systematically overstates the rate that actually connected the two points.

Doubling examples anchor the intuition. EPS doubling in 5 years requires 14.9% a year; doubling in 10 years requires 7.2%. The Rule of 72 gives a quick estimate in reverse: at 12.2%, EPS doubles in roughly 72 ÷ 12.2 = 5.9 years. These checkpoints catch bad inputs fast — if your math says EPS quadruples in 3 years, one of the EPS figures is probably not split-adjusted.

The same compound logic applies to any metric with a base and an endpoint. The CAGR calculator runs the identical formula on revenue, profit, or an investment balance, and the compound growth calculator generalizes it to subscribers, users, or production volume when you want growth modeled per period rather than per year.

Sustainable Growth: ROE Times Retention

Sustainable growth answers how fast EPS can grow if the company only reinvests what it keeps. The formula is g = ROE × (1 − payout ratio). An 18% ROE with a 35% payout retains 65% of earnings, giving g = 18% × 0.65 = 11.7%. Compounding $1.80 of EPS at that rate for 5 years lands at $3.13 — no new shares issued, no debt added, growth paid for entirely by retained earnings.

The payout ratio sets the ceiling trade-off. Pay out everything and sustainable growth drops to zero, since nothing is reinvested. Retain everything and growth caps at ROE, which is why high-ROE businesses that pay modest dividends can compound EPS for decades. Each point of payout ratio directly subtracts from the reinvestment fuel, so dividend policy and EPS growth are the same decision viewed from two sides.

One caution: ROE quality matters as much as ROE level. A business can manufacture a high ROE with leverage rather than operations, which inflates sustainable growth on paper. The DuPont analysis calculator splits ROE into net margin, asset turnover, and equity multiplier so you can see whether the growth engine is the business or the balance sheet.

Splits, Restatements, and Share Count Effects

Every input must be split-adjusted and come from the same source. A 2-for-1 split mechanically halves EPS; a series that mixes pre-split and post-split figures shows a 50% collapse that never happened. Restatements cause quieter distortions: a company that restates prior-year EPS down makes current growth look better without any real change in the business. Pull the full history from one provider and adjust once.

EPS growth and net income growth diverge whenever share count moves. Net income growing 8% a year while shares outstanding grow 2% a year from option issuance leaves EPS growth at only 5.9%. The mirror image also holds: flat net income with the share count shrinking 3% a year through buybacks still grows EPS 3.1% a year. Neither is wrong — just know which engine produced the growth.

Dilution deserves special attention in young companies. Stock-heavy compensation can quietly absorb most of a growing company's earnings, which is why EPS growth that lags revenue growth by several points a year is such a common pattern in recently public tech firms.

What Counts as Good EPS Growth

Benchmarks need context. Large-cap aggregate earnings have compounded somewhere around 6-8% a year over long periods, with wide decade-to-decade swings, so that range works as a floor for judging mature companies rather than a target. Consistent 12-15% EPS growth marks a genuine compounder; at 15%, EPS doubles every 5 years, and few large businesses sustain it for a decade.

Consistency beats magnitude. A company compounding EPS at 12% with low variance is worth more than one averaging 15% through boom-and-bust swings, because reliable earnings stream into valuation models at a lower discount rate. Five-year and ten-year compound rates smooth the noise and expose whether growth is trending up, flat, or decaying — the direction often matters more than the level.

Growth also needs to clear your required return. If you demand 10% a year from a stock and EPS grows 6% with a static multiple, the shares return roughly 6% plus the dividend — a shortfall you can see coming. The annualized rate of return calculator converts a total share price gain into the yearly rate it represents, which makes shortfalls like this concrete.

EPS Growth Versus Dividend Growth

Dividends come out of EPS, so the payout ratio links the two growth rates. A company earning $3.20 with a 35% payout distributes $1.12 and retains $2.08 to compound. If EPS grows 12.2% and the payout ratio stays flat, the dividend grows 12.2% too — payout policy sets the split, EPS growth sets the pace.

In dividend discount models, the growth rate feeds value directly, which is why small changes in g swing fair values hard. Pushing a growth assumption from 5% to 7% can move a DDM fair value 20-30% depending on the discount rate. The dividend discount model calculator shows that sensitivity, and grounding its growth input in historical EPS CAGR keeps the estimate honest.

Watch for dividend growth outrunning EPS growth, a common pattern after a payout hike. Dividends growing 15% against EPS growing 8% pushes the payout ratio up roughly 7% a year, and the math reaches an unsustainable 100% payout within a decade. The dividend payout ratio calculator flags how much headroom remains before dividend growth has to slow to EPS pace.

Growth You Should Not Trust

Buyback-driven EPS growth is real but lower quality than operating growth. A company with flat net income and a 3%-a-year shrinking share count still posts 3.1% EPS growth, and funded cheaply that can be sound capital allocation. The trouble starts when the buyback masks a shrinking business, so compare EPS growth against revenue growth before crediting management with compounding.

Accounting quality matters as much as cash generation. EPS growth running ahead of operating cash flow growth signals aggressive accruals — receivables building, revenue recognized early, or capitalization getting creative. The accrual ratio calculator measures the gap between reported earnings and cash earnings, and a widening gap alongside fast EPS growth is a classic warning pattern.

Leverage inflates the sustainable growth formula too. ROE manufactured with debt makes g = ROE × retention look strong while the balance sheet absorbs the risk, so screen financing structure before trusting mode 2's output. The debt to equity calculator shows how much of the equity base is borrowed, and a rising ratio alongside rising ROE usually means the growth is debt-funded.

Feeding EPS Growth Into Valuation

Valuation models consume growth rates, and the garbage-in problem is severe. A DCF with 12% EPS growth sustained forever produces absurd values, because no company outgrows the economy indefinitely. The honest pattern is fade: run historical growth for 5-10 years, decay it toward GDP-like 3-4% in the terminal phase, and let the DCF calculator show how much of the value depends on that terminal assumption.

For private businesses the same logic runs through EBITDA. A company growing EBITDA 9% a year that also re-rates from 6x to 7x sees most of its value gain come from multiple expansion, which markets give and take away, rather than from earnings, which management controls. The EBITDA multiple calculator separates those two engines so growth planning stays grounded in what operations can deliver.

Reverse-DCF thinking closes the loop: instead of asking what growth the company will achieve, ask what growth the current price already assumes. EPS needing to run from $1.80 to $5.00 in 6 years implies 18.6% a year — demanding, but visible. When the market price implies more growth than the company has ever delivered, the stock is priced for perfection regardless of how good the business is.

FAQ

How do I calculate the EPS growth rate?

Take EPS at two dates and apply the compound formula: growth = (Ending EPS / Starting EPS)^(1/years) − 1. For example, EPS moving from $1.80 to $3.20 over 5 years is (3.20/1.80)^(1/5) − 1 = 12.2% per year. A single-year comparison is simply (this year EPS / last year EPS) − 1.

What is a good EPS growth rate?

Context sets the bar. Large-cap aggregate earnings have compounded around 6-8% a year over long stretches, so consistent double-digit EPS growth is above the market norm. At 12.2% a year, EPS doubles roughly every 5.9 years; 15% doubles it in about 5. Sustainability matters more than magnitude: 12% held for a decade beats 30% for two years.

Why does my broker show a different EPS growth number?

Data vendors differ on three things: GAAP versus adjusted EPS (adjusted strips one-off charges), trailing-twelve-month versus fiscal-year figures, and handling of negative base years (many vendors blank out growth when starting EPS is negative). Pull the raw EPS history yourself, adjust for splits, and the compound math will reconcile.

What is the difference between EPS growth and net income growth?

Share count sits between them. If net income grows 8% a year but shares outstanding grow 2% a year from stock compensation, EPS only grows about 5.9% a year. The reverse works with buybacks: flat net income with the share count shrinking 3% a year still grows EPS by 3.1% a year.

What is the sustainable growth rate formula?

Sustainable growth = ROE x (1 - payout ratio). A company returning 35% of earnings as dividends retains 65%, so an 18% ROE supports g = 18% x 0.65 = 11.7% without new shares or debt. Paying out everything drops sustainable growth to zero; reinvesting everything caps it at ROE.

Can EPS growth be negative and the stock still be a buy?

Yes. Cyclical companies often post negative EPS growth at the bottom of a cycle right before earnings recover, and heavy reinvestment years can depress current EPS while building future earnings power. Negative growth is a flag to investigate, decide what's driving it, and check whether the market has already priced in the decline.

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